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Monday, April 6, 2020

COVID-19: Coronavirus Mortality Rate

It appears that the ‘overall’ mortality rate for Coronavirus is about 1% (.01), such that if one million people are infected, then about 10,000 may likely die. 
[Multiply 1,000,000 by .01 / 
or move the decimal two places to the left in the infected population number. 
Example: Of 464,357 infected people, one can probably expect about 4,643 deaths.]

The 1% mortality rate for those infected is influenced by the fact that many people who are infected with the Coronavirus show no symptoms (presymptomatic or asymptomatic). This skews the math such that the initial 4% mortality rate estimates from China have had to be revised downwards.

Note: If everyone in the USA (a population of about 330,000,000) were infected, discounting the asymptomatic ones an estimated 3,300,000 could die (1%). However, as the ‘herd immunity’ factor later kicks in and slows down the infection rate, not everyone will be infected. Plus, a vaccine and possible treatments may eventually come into play. 

Meanwhile, ‘hands-on-care’ of the afflicted will influence survival rates. One reason the mortality rates during the Spanish flu pandemic was because patient care, cleanliness and nutrition was often lacking. [Note: My paternal grandfather did much to help care for the sick in his area. His love of onion sandwiches is what he claimed kept him healthy (since then it’s become known that onions, garlic and radishes do contain significant antimicrobial qualities).]

Herd Immunity:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Icelandic testing of coronavirus:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Search: ‘Spanish Flu 1918 mortality rate CDC’