Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Predicting Global Climate Change Level: Roll of the ‘Die’

’Global climate change’ is a long-term change in the earth's climate, especially a change due to an increase in the average atmospheric temperature. 

’Die’: the singular of dice, a plural noun referring to the six sided small cubes used in games of chance 

If we take six possible scenarios for the outcome of Earth’s future relating to climate change and assign one to each of the sides of a die and then roll the die to predict the future without assigning any scientific or emotional weight to any one side, we have an ‘unbiased’ random predictor relating to climate change during the next 1,000 years.

Side #1- No possible future significant change in climate during next one thousand years. This scenario is possible if the Earth is only 6,000+ years old as per Creationist beliefs  where there have been no ice ages, no extinction events and no tectonic plate movements.

Side #2- Earth shall experience minimal cooling. This could occur if global population and international trade decreased dramatically. Nuclear war, pandemics, etcetera could be the cause.

Side #3- Earth shall experience minimal warming. Such is already the case. But, I felt it only fair to include it.

Side #4- Earth shall experience drastic cooling (ice age). Could be caused if the Greenland ice escalated in melting to the point that it caused excessive flesh water to be dumped into and disrupting the Gulf Stream.

Side #5- Earth shall experience both significant cooling and warming. A combination of factors coming into play sequentially.

Side #6- Earth shall experience drastic warming (hot house planet)
When all is said and done, it is this possibility of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AFW) that would be the most devastating. 

[Another way to ‘roll the die’ is to play Russian Roulette by labeling each bullet with the above tags and loading each with the appropriate powder charge.]

AGW humor:

Note: I offer up this posting as a tribute to those of us who do not credit science with an understanding of the greenhouse effect and its relationship with the carbon cycle (despite the fact that almost all of our Earthly civilization’s progress and even progress in space is based upon science).

Note: Scientific accuracy regarding global warming is of paramount importance. One such source is:

Comment: I personally believe that any proactive solutions to global warming are not possible at this late date. Reactive solutions imposed on us by the consequences of our past actions and inactions will slow it down. However, life on Earth will not be sustainable at levels for industrialized civilization. Perhaps, all in all, things will be okay in the end. Or perhaps not. No one can predict the future — not even the angels, because of the variable called ‘human free will’.